COMMENT

NATO’s biggest exercise since Cold War could poke Russian bear

— The start of 2024 witnesses escalating global threats: the ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Iran-Pakistan exchanges, China’s tensions with Taiwan, North Korea’s strategic shift, and a concerning prospect of Russia using nuclear weapons to deter NATO.

Slovakia Elections

Slovakia may be about to elect a government which plans to halt aid to Kyiv

— Slovakia has steadfastly supported Ukraine in the war, but there are signs this may change after the election.

COMMENT

Ukraine war re-positions ‘the heart of Europe’ more eastwards... in Poland

— Poland’s importance in Europe is evolving due to its strong stance against Russian aggression in Ukraine, having hosted Ukrainian refugees, provided aid and supplies, and pushed for Ukraine’s NATO and EU integration.

Geopolitics

Finland joins Nato in a major blow to Putin which doubles the length of the alliance’s border with Russia

— Finland has gone from neutral to a Nato member in 30 years, in a move that effectively doubles the length of the border between Nato and Russia, and Sweden could be set to follow.

War in Ukraine

War in Ukraine: Beijing’s peace initiative offers glimpse at how China plans to win the war

— Beijing’s 12-point proposal is a broad-brush plan for an end to hostilities which positions China as a key power broker.

War in Ukraine

Russia announces its suspension from the last nuclear arms agreement with the US, escalating nuclear tension

— Putin’s announcement that Russia will no longer participate in the New START pauses the last remaining nuclear weapons agreement between the U.S. and Russia.

War in Ukraine

Why Germany dragged its feet over supplying Leopard tanks to Ukraine

— Why Germany needed US tanks to be offered to Ukraine and other intra-NATO issues around the decision to send tanks to Ukraine.

War in Ukraine

Ukraine war: Kremlin’s campaign of misinformation keeps Kyiv and its allies guessing

— The Kremlin’s weapons of mass distraction are designed to keep Kyiv and allies guessing.

War in Ukraine

Putin’s plan to stop Ukraine turning to the west has failed – Support for Nato is at an all-time high

— Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a military fiasco for Russia. Moscow’s fears that Ukraine was turning towards the west prompted the invasion. This has backfired dramatically.

War in Ukraine

Putin’s mobilisation speech: what he said and what he meant

— Vladimir Putin sees his war in Ukraine as an existential war, while the West sees it as a war of choice. The West needs to understand the messages coming from Russia, not ignore them.

War in Ukraine

Putin calls up more troops in Ukraine and threatens nuclear option in a speech which ups the ante but shows Russia’s weakness

— Vladimir Putin has played most of his cards now and is still not winning on the ground in Ukraine. His televised address to the Russian people is a desperate attempt to raise the stakes over the war.

Analysis

Finland and Sweden’s desire to join Nato shows Putin has permanently redrawn the map of Europe.

— Sweden and Finland’s plans to join Nato are a symbol of a major shake-up of the European security order.

War in Ukraine

Sweden and Finland eye the Nato option, but it’s a security dilemma for the west.

— Nato enlargement to Sweden and Finland could be a dangerous strategy if it backs Russia into a corner. Vladimir Putin may well turn to his often-threatened nuclear capability.

Long-Read

Vladimir Putin: A risk-taker who is gambling his country’s future.

— How did a young risk-taking politician take complete control of Russia and destabilise Europe and the US? Twenty years on, his dangerously aggressive and risky rule must be ended.

War in Ukraine

Ukraine: What might happen if the war spreads to a Nato country.

— Article 5 of the Nato treaty calls for collective defence if a member nation is attacked. But some Nato countries further from the conflict zone might be reluctant to send combat forces even in the event that Article 5 is triggered.

War in Ukraine

EU as a Line of Defense for Ukraine?

— Can the EU be a line of defense for Ukraine or other countries such as Georgia and Moldova in a potential territorial conflict with Russia?