Stefan Wolff

War in Ukraine

Trump wants China’s help in making peace in Ukraine. He’s unlikely to get it

— Donald Trump’s invitation to Xi Jinping for his inauguration aims to involve China in Ukraine peace talks, but Beijing’s interests likely align with prolonging the conflict, favouring its geopolitical dominance.

War in Ukraine

Ukraine: after 1,000 days of war, Europe must prepare for a Trump-brokered peace deal by asserting its own interests

— Donald Trump’s reelection raises questions about his pledge to end the Ukraine War. Europe must prepare for reduced U.S. support, while Ukraine faces difficult choices to secure sovereignty and stability.

Eastern Europe

Moldova votes on whether to join EU as Russia intensifies vast disinformation campaign

— Moldova faces intense Russian-backed disinformation ahead of its October 20 referendum on EU membership, as pro-European President Maia Sandu campaigns to align Moldova with the EU despite entrenched divisions.

2024 US Presidential Election

A Trump-Vance White House could undermine European security – and end up pushing Russia and China closer

— Donald Trump’s pick of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as running mate could shift US focus from Europe to China, sparking European fears of diminished American support. Vance’s stance might weaken transatlantic security ties.

US-China Relationship

Xi and Biden spoke on the phone for 105 minutes: What does this say about their relationship?

— Biden and Xi discussed stabilising US-China relations, covering Taiwan, TikTok, tariffs, and support for Russia in a 105-minute call, indicating a thaw in relations amid deep-seated mistrust.

War in Ukraine

Ukraine war: Ten years after Putin annexed Crimea, Russia’s grip on the peninsula looks shaky

— Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 hasn’t secured the region as Vladimir Putin hoped. Recent Ukrainian attacks expose vulnerability, leading to losses like the Black Sea fleet. Ukrainian successes challenge Russia’s grip.

War in Ukraine

Ukraine war: Corruption scandals and high-level rifts could become an existential threat as Kyiv asks for more military aid

— Ukraine faces a dual challenge: while President Zelensky’s anti-corruption efforts show progress, a scandal involving missing military supplies highlights pervasive corruption, jeopardizing both internal stability and Western support.

China-Russia Relationship

Xi-Putin meeting: Here’s what it says about their current, and future, relationship

— Vladimir Putin’s first trip outside Russia in 20 months is to attend Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) anniversary summit. Both leaders aim to challenge the Western-dominated order but their partnership leans towards China.

War in Ukraine

Ukraine War: Mixed signals among Kyiv’s allies hint at growing conflict fatigue

— As the war nears 600 days, there are signs that support for Ukraine could be beginning to waver in some parts.

War in Ukraine

Ukraine War: Crimean bridge attack is another blow to Putin’s strongman image

— Ukraine has damaged the Kerch Strait bridge that connects Russia and Crimea, in a symbolic strike against Russia’s illegal annexation of the peninsula. The attack is part of a broader campaign to disrupt Russian supply lines and undermine its claim to Ukrainian territory.

Russia

Putin seriously weakened by Wagner Group mutiny – but it was a missed opportunity for Ukraine too

— Yevgeny Prigozhin’s coup attempt exposed the weakness and fragility of Vladimir Putin’s regime and the war in Ukraine. The crisis also raised doubts about Russia’s reliability as a partner for its allies. The failed rebellion may have lasting repercussions for Russia and the region.

War in Ukraine

Zelensky’s European tour has won critical support for Ukraine’s counter-offensive

— The recent visits of Volodymyr Zelensky to his European allies to seek military and diplomatic support for the war against Russia was a success as Germany, France, and Britain have agreed to provide Ukraine with more weapons and equipment for its counter-offensive.

War in Ukraine

Drone ‘attack’ on the Kremlin – Logic suggests a false flag to distract Russians ahead of Victory Day

— The drone ‘attack’ on the Kremlin remains shrouded in mystery. The logic suggests a false flag but here are some of the possible explanations.

War in Ukraine

Ukraine war: The lessons from the Northern Ireland peace process

— Ukraine is hinting it may be prepared to talk, with conditions. Here’s what both sides could learn from the Northern Ireland peace process.

War in Ukraine

Ukraine war: Kremlin’s campaign of misinformation keeps Kyiv and its allies guessing

— The Kremlin’s weapons of mass distraction are designed to keep Kyiv and allies guessing.

Analysis

Finland and Sweden’s desire to join Nato shows Putin has permanently redrawn the map of Europe.

— Sweden and Finland’s plans to join Nato are a symbol of a major shake-up of the European security order.