Analysis

Boris Johnson should be very worried about what 2022 local council results mean for the next general election.

— There is a strong correlation between local election results and general election results two years later. If that pattern holds, Johnson’s parliamentary majority is at risk. The Conservatives could lose up to 122 seats in the next general election.

UK Politics

Boris Johnson’s bad behaviour: How declining trust in the prime minister affects trust in British democracy.

— A new survey shows a strong link between trusting the prime minister and trusting the government, Parliament and political parties.

Analysis

Cost of living crisis – Historical evidence suggests voters could quickly turn against Tories.

— As household budgets come under strain, so does support for governments, as Boris Johnson should note.

Analysis

Boris Johnson polling is now so bad that it makes sense for Conservative MPs to get rid of him.

— If Boris Johnson is not replaced by a new leader, backbench Conservative MPs would be well advised to start brushing up their CVs in preparation for life after Westminster.

Downing Street Parties

Is the party over for Boris Johnson? This polling detail suggests it could well be.

— There is a clear route out of the Boris Johnson problem for Tory MPs – namely to remove the prime minister and hope for a recovery in the polls by electing a new leader.

Analysis

How much trouble is Boris Johnson in?

— Backbenchers are rattling their sabres and a brutal by-election loss has made it all so much worse for Boris Johnson.