Immigration

What does high immigration mean for the government’s popularity?

— High immigration rates correlate with increased support for the governing party and lower unemployment rates. Legal immigration has little economic impact, but illegal immigration causes fear and anxiety. To win elections, parties must address irregular arrivals and emphasize immigration benefits.

UK Politics

Why a Labour-Lib Dem coalition wouldn’t cause electoral annihilation like their deal with the Tories

— Labour and Lib Dem leaders deny potential coalition for the next general election. However, ideological proximity favours a Lib Dem-Labour partnership.

UK Politics

A painful picture for the Tories: Forecasting the general election from the local results

— Electoral forecasting is a difficult science that relies on past data. Different techniques produce different outcomes for the next UK general election. Looking back at the relationship between local elections and subsequent general elections puts Labour on course for a House of Commons majority.

UK Politics

Can Rishi Sunak save the Tories? Voting behaviour over time suggests it will take more than personal appeal to win the next election

— The prime minister is popular, his party is not. Which is more important as we head towards the next election?

Scottish Independence

A decade of polls suggests Scotland’s new first minister Humza Yousaf will struggle to deliver independence, just like Nicola Sturgeon

— The SNP’s new leader only just squeaked over the line against his rivals, which is a bad sign for his ambition to take Scotland out of the UK.

UK Strikes

Why refusing public sector pay rises won’t help reduce inflation

— Recent price rises are not due to higher wages but supply-side issues, including the war in Ukraine, the COVID pandemic, and Brexit. All in all, the current government’s intransigence on public sector pay is based on both bad economics and bad politics.

UK Politics

70 years of data suggest the Conservatives will suffer a big defeat at the next election

— Polling only provides a snapshot of the current moment but modelling across decades can help us predict the next election result.

Trust in Politics

Trust in UK politics has taken a hit after recent chaos – and historical data suggests only a change of government can fix it

— The public does not trust British political parties at the moment, particularly not the Tories. This affects their ability to govern because much of governing is about persuading people to do or not to do things, and that becomes impossible if voters believe that they are being lied to all the time.

UK Politics

Liz Truss: Are the Conservatives facing an electoral meltdown?

— A quick look back at the history books might have deterred PM Liz Truss from her extreme actions.

UK Politics

Tory leadership race: Will Liz Truss’s tax cut proposals win her votes?

— The likely next prime minister is focusing on tax cuts to solve inflation. There are indeed votes to be won by focusing on taxes – but these are among Conservative party members, not the general public.

Cost of Living Crisis

Cost of living crisis: The UK needs to raise taxes not cut them

— Tax cuts are unlikely to help Britain address its current crises. Extra spending has to be financed. To do this, Britain needs higher taxes, not tax cuts.

UK Politics

Is race an issue that might explain why Rishi Sunak is doing so badly among Tory members?

— A difficult question for pollsters to investigate: Is race an issue for Rishi Sunak? No one says ‘yes, ethnicity is an issue for me’ when pollsters ask but Conservative party members do show an above-average opposition to diversity drives.

Conservative Leadership Contest

Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss? Polling shows party members want her – but the wider voting public would choose him.

— Will Conservative Party members choose their preferred leader to become the new Prime Minister or the candidate who is more popular with the wider public?

Analysis

What the result of the confidence vote means for the PM and the Conservative Party.

— With 41% of his MPs voting against his leadership, how realistic are Boris Johnson’s hopes for survival?

Analysis

Why Britain really can’t afford to cut civil servants right now.

— The plan to cut 91,000 civil service jobs could make service delivery impossible after decades of decline – not a winning campaign strategy in a future general election.

Analysis

Boris Johnson should be very worried about what 2022 local council results mean for the next general election.

— There is a strong correlation between local election results and general election results two years later. If that pattern holds, Johnson’s parliamentary majority is at risk. The Conservatives could lose up to 122 seats in the next general election.