UK Politics

Why the Tories may be wasting their time trying to compete with Reform

— The Reform Party did not significantly undermine the Conservative vote in the last general election. In fact, both parties drew support from different demographic groups and were electoral allies rather than rivals.

2024 General Election

Election 2024 polls were wide of the mark on Labour’s margin of victory – this is what may have happened

— The 2024 UK election campaign was heavily focused on polls, revealing a mix of accurate and inaccurate predictions. While Labour’s lead was often overestimated, varying accuracy among pollsters highlighted challenges in achieving representative samples.

2024 General Election

Why Labour should worry this election will be more like 2001 than 1997

— Labour fears a low voter turnout may jeopardise their anticipated landslide victory. Historical data, particularly from 2001, shows turnout significantly impacts election outcomes. Many voters are undecided or complacent, threatening Labour’s confidence.

2024 General Election

What would a Reform surge do to Labour and the Liberal Democrats? Two scenarios mapped

— Labour’s Keir Starmer and LibDem’s Ed Davey appear to have a tacit agreement to avoid campaigning against each other, focusing on defeating the Conservatives. The Reform party could further divide the Conservative vote and increase their chances in marginal seats.

2024 General Election

Has Reform really overtaken the Tories in the polls? And does that mean it could beat them on July 4?

— A YouGov poll shows Reform UK leading the Conservatives for the first time, 19% to 18%. Despite this, both parties are essentially tied. Nigel Farage’s leadership has boosted Reform’s support, affecting Conservative vote shares and potentially aiding Labour and Liberal Democrats.

2024 General Election

Why doesn’t economic good news shift the polls for Rishi Sunak? An analysis of 27 past elections explains the problem

— Despite falling inflation, which should boost the Conservative government, voter intentions remain unchanged, with Conservatives trailing Labour by over 20%. This suggests other factors, like the NHS and immigration, overshadow economic improvements.

2024 General Election

Should Rishi Sunak even bother?

— With Labour leading in polls for over a year, Rishi Sunak faces a tough campaign to turn the tide. The PM’s campaign started poorly, suggesting the Conservatives might perform even worse than predicted in the General Election.

2024 US Presidential Election

US election: Why Latino and Hispanic voters are shifting to Trump after a long history of supporting the Democrats

— Recent polls show a shift towards Trump among Hispanic and Latino voters, crucial in swing states. Historically Democratic, their increased support for Trump, driven by economic and pandemic issues, could impact the tight 2024 race.

UK Politics

Rishi Sunak claims the UK is heading for a hung parliament — let’s check his maths

— In recent local elections, the Conservative Party lost 478 councillors, suggesting a hung parliament may loom, despite Labour’s strong performance and a 10% swing in their favour.

2024 US Presidential Election

Joe Biden has raised more than Trump so far – Here’s how US election fundraising is working out

— Research shows that US campaign spending in elections tends to mobilise people to vote rather than to switch support.

2024 US Presidential Election

Two charts that reveal a key weakness in Trump’s reelection bid

— Donald Trump’s New Hampshire primary win strengthens his 2024 Republican nomination chances, but winning independents poses a challenge. The 2020 study suggests Biden’s broader appeal and likability may challenge Trump’s divisive strategy.

2024 US Presidential Election

Biden’s low approval ratings don’t mean he is bound to lose the 2024 US election – here’s why

— Some Democrats are concerned as recent polls suggest voters may choose Donald Trump over Joe Biden in key states for the 2024 presidential election. Despite Biden's low approval, electoral outcomes remain uncertain.

UK General Election

New Labour dominance in the 1990s is now weakening the Conservative voter pipeline

— A study on voting trends in Britain spanning 55 years reveals that growing older doesn’t directly lead to increased Conservative support. Instead, age appears to have a greater influence on Labour voting.

UK Politics

People experiencing news fatigue are less likely to be voters

— More and more people are saying they don’t trust the news or can’t face engaging with it – and that appears to have political implications.

UK Politics

The UK’s top financial influencers skew Conservative – which helps explain why Keir Starmer’s Labour is so anxious about uncosted spending pledges

— Labour is divided over whether it will win over voters by promising more public investment or by proving it is economically restrained.

UK Politics

Boris Johnson resignation: Why Rishi Sunak can’t afford to lose more than one of three impending by-elections

— Labour stands a good chance of taking one of three impending votes, while losing either of the other two would be very bad news for Rishi Sunak.