Are we about to watch Trump pivot?
A failed assassination attempt on ex-President Trump highlights the dangers of political violence and the critical need for democratic processes. This incident may temporarily boost Trump’s sympathy, impacting voter perceptions.
TL;DR | Highlights from this story
● Political division should be resolved through democratic elections and voting.
● But Trump and Biden’s unified reactions post-attempt are short-lived.
● Swing voters in key states will ultimately determine the election outcome.
● Trump’s sympathy wave and Biden’s perceived ageing may shift voter dynamics before Election Day.
N o one wants to see any politician assassinated. The way to defeat a politician is at the ballot box.
That’s what makes a democracy successful.
We came close this weekend. The bullet that grazed ex-President Donald Trump’s ear was a few inches shy of killing him.
That’s not the way to solve the political division in our country.
Assassination would only divide us more.
Both the reactions from Trump and President Biden are what we needed. The momentary agreement on messaging – unity – won’t last forever, or even, possibly, four days.
We just don’t know.
For those who dislike Trump, he is seen as a ‘me, me, me’ personality only out for himself. If that personality perception is true, he cannot change it overnight.
Though a near-miss assassination attempt could have its effect on voters, and most particularly on Trump.
For those who think Biden is old, that fact cannot be changed. It only grows by the day.
Another truth that we face that will not change is that this election will be decided by a slice of voters in a small number of states.
Those swing voters are up for grabs.
Here’s one theory: Trump learned in the weeks since Biden’s disastrous debate performance that he truly can gain ground by keeping his mouth shut.
Since he was wounded, he is experiencing a wave of sympathy, understandably, for his surviving the assassination attempt and having the instinct to raise his fist, mouthing ‘fight!’ In shock or not, that image shows strength versus Biden’s perceived weakness/ageing.
A picture that already lives in infamy.
Trump could continue gaining ground by going with that momentum, especially if Biden makes another significant or several less significant gaffes/showing his age, as he did in his national address last night. They probably were the typical effects of his life-long stutter problem, but they are perceived differently by many these days.
If Trump, who will ride a wave of sympathy for a bit, can maintain a pivot to a less verbose, mean-spirited guy – he may ride that wave to a win on Election Day.
How does Biden win? If Trump returns to form/character, Biden will have an opportunity.
Calls for Biden to suspend his campaign and make way for a new generation are on pause at the moment as the assassination attempt works its way through the political thought process on both sides.
But that won’t last long. Those who thought Biden was too old before Saturday, haven’t changed their minds since Saturday.
The ageing process, hopefully, lasts a long time for each of us.
But the time to nominate a candidate to oppose Trump lessens every day.
If Biden makes room for a replacement, the race to November will be on again.
Sources:
▪ This piece was first published in The Screaming Moderate and re-published in PUBLIC SQUARE UK on 17 July 2024 under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. | The author writes in a personal capacity.
▪ Cover: Flickr/Gage Skidmore. (Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.)
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