The title match of the campaign

W hatcha doin’ tonight?

Unless you’re on a streaming service only, about all you’ll find on TV is two older guys going at each other in what will be either a cage match suitable for WWE OR MMA or two older guys who have two very different views of what the United States is all about.

That main event will be the first of two scheduled debates between former President Donald J. Trump and President Joe Biden.

What should you look for? Trust me, no one can answer that question, but many are trying. Heck, I’ll even take a shot:

Former President Donald J. Trump is teasing that he will have one of two strategies: Be nice or be an attacking ass. OK, those weren’t his exact words but close.

Honestly, I have never witnessed Trump having the discipline to be nice for 90 minutes – especially if he’s on stage with an opponent. Need proof?  Re-watch any debate he’s been in since 2016, whether in a primary or in a general election.

Do you expect him to just lay back and be the charming Trump that those who’ve been in his private company say he can be? I just can’t imagine.

Fact is, it’s his nature, when he sees someone who wants to beat him at anything, to attack. Then he attacks more. “Little Marco.” “Crooked Hillary.” “Crooked Joe.” OK, sometimes he repeats himself (OK, he often repeats himself), but if it worked once, he figures it’ll work again. Reruns are fine. Him winning is all that matters.

All attacks are fair – immature or not.

But he does need to attract new voters from four years ago if he wants to win in November. His core base is there, no matter what. They have proven they are his ride-or-die. And they love seeing the out-of-control Trump. Absolutely love it.

They will cheer every false allegation he makes, every remark he utters that makes fun of President Joe Biden, every swear word he can sneak in.

Will we hear the word “bullshit?” Who knows? Stay tuned!

There won’t be an audience, so you won’t see its reaction in real-time. Trump will miss that energy he feeds off so well.

And even though he has slightly led in most polls throughout the year, everyone agrees this will be a close race.

Truth is, what happens tonight likely won’t be the deciding factor because there is so much time between then and the real voting. Wars, disease, natural crises, gaffes in the campaign, a candidate health event – all that can happen, so what’s a debate in June really mean?

Well, it can set a tone for the campaign. Biden needs to get through it without making what can be made into an “elderly mistake” or show signs of being tired at 9:30 Eastern Time (like many of us his junior). He’s a decades-old politician, though, and that makes him dangerous. He lives for political moments.

Trump needs something to add to his votes, something he’s been unable to do so far.

— Biden to Trump in the 2020 Election Debate: “Will you shut up, man?”

He won’t do this, but what if, for example, he announced, in the middle of the debate, who his vice-presidential running mate will be? That definitely could be the news of the night – and at a forum millions are watching. He’d only do that if his choice will bring in new Trump voters, or at least he thinks it will.

For example, if in Trump’s calculations he thinks South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, an African-American, can help him suck more black voters from Biden, he could name him.

Or if New York Cong. Elise Stefanik, in his mind, can suck some suburban women his way. But, as was pointed out in a New York Times discussion among its columnists the other day, Stefanik is not exactly Trump's vision of the perfect female running mate. Gov. Kristi Nome may have been, but she shot herself in her dog.

Trump, as you may have noticed, goes for the dramatic and for the cameras. So, he may try that tactic.

Or, he may be more focused on trying to maneuver Biden into a reaction that will give viewers the reinforcement they need to decide Biden’s just too old for the job.

Then again, there’s always the economy. Biden’s economy is perceived as (and is, in some cases) not good for the working person. They see no reductions in their costs of living, including food, gas and inflation. Biden has a decent story to tell on those counts but not one accepted by the average working person. So the guess is he won’t go down that road precisely.

And, if you read memes being put on social media by Trump supporters, you will see even higher inflation and costs being touted because they are not being honest (when the honest story would be enough to make their point).

New numbers will be announced for initial jobless claims, GDP’s second revision, durable goods orders and pending home sales. If any one, or more, of those numbers is bad for the Biden Administration, Trump likely will raise them as up-to-date evidence of a “reeling economy.”

Biden, on the other hand, will be looking for opportunities to bring out the Mad Man in Trump. Something to get under his skin that will cause him to react in a way detrimental to attracting swing voters who will probably decide this election.

Biden will be attacking on things like abortion rights, where Trump gets the credit for appointing the U.S. Supreme Court justices who killed Roe v. Wade. Trump will argue that decision to provide that right belongs with the states as the upheaval of Roe determined – but it still is a removal of a 50-year-old right American women had.

We know where each candidate stands, pretty much, on the issues. What we don’t know is what strategy they’ll use Thursday night.

One thing for sure, if you care about politics and country,  it won’t be boring.

Sources:

▪ This piece was first published in The Screaming Moderate and re-published in PUBLIC SQUARE UK on 27 June 2024 under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. | The author writes in a personal capacity.

▪ Cover: Flickr/Gage Skidmore & The White House. (Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.)